食品微生物定量风险分级模型初探与验证
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(1.吉林省疾病预防控制中心,吉林 长春 130062;2.国家食品安全风险评估中心 国家卫生健康委员会食品安全风险评估重点实验室,北京 100022)

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翟前前 女 主管医师 研究方向为食源性疾病负担 E-mail:80843286@qq.com通信作者:┣┣(中)通信作者┫┫白光大 男 主任医师 研究方向为食品安全 E-mail:baigd100@163.com

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基金项目:

卫生行业科研专项项目(201302005)


Preliminary investigation of quantitative food microbial risk ranking model and its verification
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Jilin Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jilin Changchun 130062,China;2.NHC Key Laboratory of Food Safety Risk Assessment, China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, China)

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    摘要:

    目的 构建吉林省食品微生物定量风险分级模型并进一步验证。方法 利用食物消费量、交叉污染和烹调行为等相关数据,以2014年吉林省食品微生物监测数据为例,通过风险矩阵对不同致病菌污染所致人群健康风险进行风险分级并利用Risk Ranger进一步验证。结果 通过分级模型发现调理生猪肉中存在沙门菌污染,乳与乳制品和三明治中单增李斯特菌污染存在中风险;发现41.67%的食源性疾病病例由沙门菌引起;中式凉拌素菜导致的食源性疾病人数最多,占所有病例的69.06%;75.22%的食源性疾病病例是由于不完全烹调所致;经Risk Ranger进一步验证提出应对“调理生猪肉-沙门菌”组合优先进行风险评估,不完全烹调及其干预措施是评估的重点环节;根据年发病率推算,吉林省2 700万人中,每年约有3.6万人发生食源性疾病。结论 吉林省食品微生物定量风险分级模型初步建立,但需要进一步修正模型参数,更加准确的估算发病率。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop the quantitative food microbial risk ranking model in Jilin Province and further verify it. Methods Based on the real consumption data, parameters for cross-contamination and cooking habits, the food pathogen monitoring result from Jilin Province in 2014 was used as an example, a deterministic risk ranking model and matrix were used to prioritize the microbial hazards and food types combination, and Risk Ranger was used to further verify the risk. Results There was medium health risk caused by Salmonella in marinated raw pork and Listeria monocytogenes in milk and sandwich. 41.67% of the illness was salmonellosis and 69.06% of the cases were attributed to the Chinese vegetarian salad and 75.22% of the cases were caused by under cooked food. Risk Ranger further verified that priority should be given to the risk assessment of the “marinated raw pork-Salmonella” combination and under cooked food and interventions were the key aspects of the assessment. According to the annual incidence rate, about 36 000 people suffered from foodborne diseases each year among Jilin's 27 million population. Conclusion A quantitative risk ranking model for food microbial was preliminary developed in Jilin Province which needs further modification on the model parameters for more accurate estimation.

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翟前前,朱江辉,方赤光,白光大.食品微生物定量风险分级模型初探与验证[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2019,31(3):259-265.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-03-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-07-09
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