Based on the data obtained from surveys in China,a computative model was developed for the quantitative assessment of the risk of an epidemic. The model was used to assess the risk of Salmonella infection caused by consumption of contaminated shell eggs. The exposure assessment estimates the number of eggs that are internally contaminated with Salmonella and the change in numbers of Salmonella organisms in eggs through storage and transportation. The model simulates an average production of 250 million shell eggs in China per year which contain Salmonella and an average quantity of contamination 70 CFU per contaminated egg. The results became the base for assessing the potential risk for the occurrence of an epidemic of Salmonella infection. Furthermore,the farm-to-table approach provides a framework for developing similar risk assessment methods for other pathogen-product pairs.