时空扫描统计量在云南省野生蕈中毒聚集性探测中的应用研究
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(云南省疾病预防控制中心营养与食品卫生所,云南 昆明 650022)

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王晓雯 女 医师 研究方向为卫生统计学在食源性疾病中的应用 E-mail:wangxiaowen84@sina.com通信作者:┣┣(中)通信作者┫┫陆林 男 主任医师 研究方向为艾滋病流行病学和卫生管理与政策 E-mail:lulin@yncdc.cn

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云南省应用基础研究计划项目青年项目


Space-time scan statistical analysis of incident detection exploring clusters for wild mushroom poisoning in Yunnan Province
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(Division of Nutrition and Food Hygiene,Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yunnan Kunming 650022,China)

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    摘要:

    探讨时空扫描统计量在野生蕈中毒聚集性探测及早期预警中的应用价值。方法 采用回顾性和前瞻性时空扫描统计量建立模型,以区/县作为基本地理单位,对云南省2011—2012年野生蕈中毒数据进行分析,结果分别与三间分布描述结果及实际监测结果进行比对。结果 基于回顾性时空聚集性分析:2011年,野生蕈中毒聚集性最强的为7月12日至7月18日文山州丘北县,理论发病人数0.051人,LLR=149.330,P=0.001;2012年,野生蕈中毒聚集性最强的为6月5日至6月18日文山州麻栗坡县和西畴县,理论发病人数0.057人,LLR=91.767,P=0.001。基于前瞻性时空聚集性分析,对2011年6月1日至2011年6月31日的预警结果分析,2011年6月1日至2011年7月1日均发出预警信号,昭通市盐津县在7 d内实际发病数为6例,预期发病例数为0.039例,LLR=24.234,P=0.001。结论 回顾性时空聚集分析可以充分利用时间和空间信息,使得探测结果更为精确,能准确有效的探测出野生蕈中毒的发病模式;前瞻性时空聚集性分析可以较为准确的进行前瞻性预警分析,在实际工作中具有重要的应用价值。

    Abstract:

    To explore the valuable of space-time scan statistics for detecting the clustering of wild mushroom poisoning and to provide early warning for officials.Methods The approach is based on both retrospective and prospective scan statistics which were respectively tested with data in 2011 and 2012; and the analysis was implemented at the county level. Compare the results of traditional epidemiology analyses and retrospective analysis and compare the results of prospective analysis and real-time monitoring. Results Based on the retrospective space-time analysis, in 2011, the clustering time of wild mushroom poisoning was from June to August,the most significant cluster was from 12th, July to 18th, July and occurred in Qiubei County, in the Wenshan Municipal area. The number of expected was 0.051. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 149.330 and P=0.001. In 2012, the most significant cluster was from 5th , July to 18th, July and occurred in Malipo County and Xichou County. The number expected was 0.057. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 91.767 and P=0.001. When analyzing the early warning results from 1st, June to 1st, July, we found that the warning signals were set out daily from 1st, June to 1st , July. Within the 7 days scan parameter, the number of expected cases was 0.039, as calculated by the model. LLR(Log Likelihood Ratio)value was 24.234 and P=0.001.Conclusion The retrospective space-time scan statistics could take advantage of temporal and spatial information to make detecting results more accurate and effective and prospective space-time scan statistic could be applied to provide an early warning analysis.

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王晓雯,赵世文,刘志涛,余思洋,陆林.时空扫描统计量在云南省野生蕈中毒聚集性探测中的应用研究[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2016,28(3):295-300.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-11-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-06-02
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